5 posts tagged with "Hydrology"

Last week, at the invitation and expert coordination of James Halgren, teams from RTI International (Sam Lamont and Matt Denno) and the University of Calgary (Darri Eythorsson, Cyril Thebault, and Martyn Clark) met at AWI for an intensive working session focused on weaving recent CIROH research into AWI’s fork of the NOAA Office of Water Prediction (OWP) Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework (nicknamed “NextGen”). James took the lead in developing the agenda, lining up the right scientific and technical expertise and ensuring that the week targeted the most critical software integration challenges. Throughout the visit, the RTI and UCalgary teams collaborated closely with AWI software engineers Quinn Lee, Josh Cunningham, hydrologic scientist Sifan A. Koriche, and James himself. The days were filled with whiteboards, deep technical conversations, and strategic planning around the future of NextGen water prediction. This recap captures the key themes and the momentum that carried through the week.

Almost from the start, 2025 has been a banner year in hydrologic modeling, with advancements in capabilities on both sides of the aisle of CIROH's research-to-operations (R2O) pipeline.

• From the research skunkworks, Penn State's MHPI group, led by Dr. Chaopeng Shen introduced a new generation of distributed, differentiable hydrologic models spearheaded by δHBV 2.0. Capable of high-resolution, continental-scale streamflow forecasting across the CONUS Hydrofabric, δHBV 2.0 fuses process-based modeling and machine learning to enable efficient parameter calibration and interpretable predictions at scale -- with demonstrated viability as a National Water Model 3.0 successor.

The National Weather Service's Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) sees large variations in the performance of the National Water Model 3.0. Through its support for regionalized parameters and models, NOAA-OWP’s Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework (NextGen framework) offers a potential solution to address these inconsistencies. As such, this study took advantage of NextGen in a Box (NGIAB) to evaluate the NextGen framework’s performance in the MARFC region.

This study evaluated three operational hydrologic modeling frameworks targetted at the National Water Model (NWM): the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), the NextGen framework, and version 3.0 of the National Water Model itself.

• CHPS is the current operational framework used by NOAA's River Forecast Centers. It incorporates the SNOW-17 model for snowmelt and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for runoff generation.
• For the early phases of this study, the NextGen framework was used with the default model configuration provided by the NGIAB ecosystem, which combines the Noah-OWP-Modular land surface model and the Conceptual Functional Equivalent (CFE) rainfall runoff model [2].
  • After initial runs with the baseline configuration, Noah-OWP-Modular was replaced with SNOW-17 output and simplified Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) values from the MARFC database.
  • The models were calibrated using two objective functions: Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) [6][7] and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) [4][5].
• The National Water Model 3.0 uses the Noah-MP land surface model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) [2][3] to simulate hydrological processes across CONUS.

The case studies focused on the Westfield and Elkland basins in North-Central Pennsylvania. These basins provide good locations for comparison due to the presence of USGS stream gages and their "flashy" behavior, characterized by rapid and unpredictable rises and falls in streamflow. Additionally, both Westfield and Elkland were sites of catastrophic flooding during Tropical Storm Debby in 2024, which allowed for the models to be evaluated on a recent extreme flood event. Results from Westfield, PA are shown in Figure 1.

Recent collaboration between researchers in the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) from University of Alabama (UA) and Utah State University (USU) highlighted the value of cross-institutional partnerships in improving community hydrologic modeling. Focused on the Logan River watershed, this joint effort demonstrated how sharing tools, knowledge, and infrastructure can accelerate both model development and scientific discovery.

Through this engagement, USU researchers gained deeper understanding of the NextGen framework and T-Route modeling library, empowering them to improve physical process representations for the Logan River watershed for heightened simulation fidelity. The collaboration also provided valuable exposure to the developmental side of complex modeling tools, offering insights into framework design, automation workflows, and best practices for model setup and calibration. Both teams benefited from exposure to alternative research tools and methods, which helped enhance and refine the community development pipeline.

We're thrilled to announce that NextGen In A Box (NGIAB) has surpassed 10,000 Docker pulls — a significant milestone reflecting the growing adoption of water modeling tools that are accessible to all. This achievement creates opportunities for researchers, practitioners, and students worldwide to leverage advanced water prediction frameworks without infrastructure barriers, accelerating global water science innovation.

Update, 8/29: NGIAB Journal Paper now available in Environmental Modelling and Software
→ Read the full paper

From Research Innovation to Community Tool​

When we first containerized the NextGen Water Resources Modeling Framework into NGIAB, our goal was simple yet ambitious: remove the technical barriers that prevented many researchers from accessing NOAA's next-generation water modeling capabilities.

Today, with over 10,000 downloads, it's clear the community was ready for this transformation.

The University of Alabama recently highlighted NGIAB's impact in their news feature, "UA Software Makes Water Modeling More Accessible", recognizing how this tool is changing the landscape of hydrologic research and education. As the article notes, NGIAB turns what was once a complex, infrastructure-heavy process into something that researchers can run on their laptops in minutes.